2026 Q1- 2026 Q2
March 1st 2026
Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2026 Q1 (average price returns) is a 2 percent growth over the fourth quarter of 2025. For 2026 Q2, we expect only 0.3 percent growth over Q1. Our monthly forecast for March is lower than February’s average.
Volatility concerning frequent changes in tariff rates and timings, and geopolitical conflicts, cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.
