Stock market prediction: Quarterly S&P 500 Forecast

2024 Q1 – 2024 Q2

March 1st, 2024

Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2024 Q1 (average price returns) indicates a 10.5 percent increase over the fourth quarter of 2023. We expect 4.8 percent growth in 2024 Q2 over Q1. Our monthly forecast for March is slightly lower than February’s average. Geopolitical problems such as the Russia-Ukraine, the Red Sea crisis, and the Gaza conflict cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.