Tag: Aktienmarktprognose

Stock market prediction: Quarterly S&P 500 Forecast

2024 Q2

April 1st, 2024

Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2024 Q2 (average price returns) indicates a 7.2 percent increase over the first quarter of 2024. Our monthly forecast for April is slightly higher than March’s average. Geopolitical problems such as the Russia-Ukraine, the Red Sea crisis, and the Gaza conflict cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.    

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Stock market prediction: Monthly S&P 500 Forecast

Monthly S&P 500 forecast for April 2024

April 1st, 2023

Our monthly S&P 500 forecast for April is a 1.55 percent increase over the average of March.

The model-based forecast takes into account the changes in oil prices and yield spreads. However, a forecast model cannot possibly capture the full impact of the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, escalating tensions in Gaza or the Red Sea crisis.

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