2025 Q2
May 1st 2025
Our quarterly S&P 500 forecast for 2025 Q2 (average price returns) is a 1.7 percent drop over the first quarter. Our monthly forecast for May is higher than April’s average. The volatility concerning frequent changes in tariff rates and timings, and geopolitical problems such as the war in Ukraine cannot be captured in a forecast model. Thus, any uncertainty concerning these issues makes the 95 % confidence interval around the point forecast rather wide.
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